Wednesday, April 9, 2008

A quiz

According to the Wall Street Journal, the number of illegal aliens captured at the border is DOWN by 17% and that means fewer of them are attempting to come here. They suggest that it is primarily because of a slowing economy here in the United States.

They also report that the captures in the Yuma Arizona Sector are down by 76%. The Tucson Sector reports a 12% drop in apprehensions. The Journal suggests that maybe tougher Arizona laws may have put a damper on activity.

So, the quiz: Fewer illegal aliens have attempted to enter the United States because:
a) More Americans are willing to do the jobs they previously wouldn’t do
b) Illegal aliens are afraid of being caught and prosecuted
c) None of the above

I guess I’m more of a “c) None of the above” kind of guy.

My problem with measuring the flow of illegal aliens by extrapolation has to do with the people who are doing the measuring; our own Executive Branch. The Bush Administration has not been forthright with us for the last seven years.

Remember when Judicial Watch had to sue Bush in order to get the results of the Border Patrol survey in January 2004? It took a year and a half to get the data and even then it was incomplete.

It sort of reminds me of the old joke about the business owner who was interviewing accountants. He asked one of them, “What is 2 + 2?” And the shady bean counter asked right back, “What do you want it to be?”

There are so many ways to influence this number. For example, people caught at the border could mean that three illegals made it through…or eight illegals made it through. Or maybe three are caught for every one that made it through. How are you going to know? How do you prove it? There’s a good article in Social Contract about that very subject. Here’s the link:

Now, there is a Border Patrol tactic called “Sitting on Xs” which means that the agents go out to one spot night-after-night and wait for illegals to cross. These might even be rather strategic crossing points.

But there are people who are masters at the crossing game. We call them coyotes; most Mexicans call them polleros. It doesn’t take long for these “tour guides” to know where the agents are waiting. They simply go around them. They find another hole in the border somewhere. It is only a minor inconvenience.

And the police will tell you that an illegal alien who wants to come back, will come back. They are back in the country within hours of deportation if they are motivated. The AVERAGE recidivism of illegal aliens is 29%, based on a 2006 sweep of 2179 fugitives. And these fugitives are the ones who have a criminal history and/or have been through the deportation courts before.

My point is that Bush has his ways to cook the books if he wants it to appear that the flow of illegals has slowed. Armed with this great news our elected officials can now say, “Look, we are stopping them at the border. All the enforcement numbers are UP. We are now hauling employers into court. We are building the fence. Our high-tech systems have been tested. Now…let’s do amnesty.”

When are we going to wake up and tell our Congressmen that we’ll believe their plan is working when we see local evidence? And that could take a while since the feds have been undercounting illegals all along.

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