Latino math

In the spring of 2006 the Latino activists rallied the masses with a two-pronged agenda in mind:
1) Counter the passage of HR 4437 in December of 2005, which called for strict enforcement of immigration laws.
2) Show solidarity for McCain-Kennedy amnesty on the horizon in the Senate, hoping for passage while Bush was still in the White House.

And when the Democrats swept Congress in November of 2006, they took the credit and painted the Hispanic voters as sending a message that they want immigration reform. (I’ve written before that their advocates have cheapened the opinion of Latino voters who voted for the Democrats because of the war, deficit spending, and scandals…not simply over immigration reform.)

Some numbers for you:
From a Pew analysis of the 2006 election:
6.8% of registered voters are Hispanic
10.9% of registered voters are Black
79.1% of registered voters are White
3.1% of registered voters are Other
(Note: These are the REGISTERED voters. The percent who ACTUALLY VOTED was even less. 5.8% of the votes cast in 2006 were Hispanic votes.)

From a Rasmussen poll in August 2007:
79% of Americans want illegals fired from their jobs for using false documents
74% want renters to prove their immigration status
68% want stronger border security
12% believe the government is doing enough about illegal aliens
16% thought the McCain-Kennedy plan would result in fewer illegals
28% believe a legalization program is very important

From Gallup results released yesterday:
32% think Bush is doing a good job
23% think Congress is doing a good job

These numbers explain why John McCain went from saying this about the need for immigration reform on June 2nd: “In case you hadn't noticed, the thousands of people who have been relegated to ghettos have risen up and burned cars in France. They've got huge problems in France. They have tremendous problems. The police can't even go into certain areas in the suburbs of Paris. I don't want that in the suburbs of America.''
…to being out of town when the DREAM Act vote came up, and now telling the crowds on the campaign trail, “I commit to securing the borders first. We can secure those borders. As president, I would have the border state governors certify that those borders were indeed secure.” (UNH Debate September 5th)

He’s still talking about amnesty…er “we offer fines; lines; & long waits” (ibid)…which puts him to the LEFT of the Democrat Governor in his home state.

Even Clinton, Obama, and Edwards have to be careful what they say after the problem with driving permits in New York.

So, how effective was the Latino activist campaign? Are the votes worth courting? My guess is that the Republicans have resigned themselves to the fact they won’t be getting 40% of the Hispanic vote. When that happened the Democrats own most of the 5.8% and the risk of losing everyone else keeps them from venturing much beyond a strong border security stance.

The numbers simply aren’t there to do anything else. (But that doesn’t mean they still won’t push for amnesty once they are elected. The same goes for McCain.)