Caving is easier than courage

When one thinks of Obama's strategies over the years, one can't help but recall the words of Konrad Adenauer, Chancellor of Germany from 1949 to 1963.  He said:

"An infallible method of conciliating a tiger is to allow oneself to be devoured."

Keep that in mind when you hear the president speak about immigration...or the Palestinians...or Islamic terrorism. 

About those Border Arrests...

Obama said:

“And even as we have stepped up patrols, apprehensions along the border have been cut by nearly 40 percent from two years ago.  That means far fewer people are attempting to cross the border illegally.”  May 10, 2011, El Paso

Here’s why:

A jab at McCain in 2008, by Mike Luckovich

All humor aside, the Mexican economy (at least on paper) is more robust than our own.  Surely there is more competition for even entry-level jobs now than there ever was a few years ago.

Setting that aside, as with any agency measured by statistics, Border Patrol data can be manipulated simply by changing the assumptions.  And who can reliably dispute their data when dealing with an unknown quantity like illegal aliens?  After all, if we knew how many of them were coming here illegally, wouldn’t it be easier to catch them?

Back in 2007, the magazine Social Contract devoted an entire issue to counting illegal aliens.  Although there were several estimates given, all were much higher than the official DHS estimate of 12 million.

Source Link: http://www.thesocialcontract.com/artman2/publish/tsc_17_4/index.shtml

One of the authors, Fred Elbel, talked about the Border Patrol assumptions regarding those who “got away.”  Homeland Security claims that for every ONE illegal alien they apprehend at the border, FOUR are successful at illegal entry.  So, if Obama proudly apprehends 463,382 in a year, that means TWO MILLION slipped across the border.  (Oh wait, some of them keep trying and are caught several times, so that isn't a valid argument.  Whatever you say, but there are ways to accurately track those repeated efforts.  Why doesn't Washington implement them?)

But what if the ratio is 1-in-7?  Over the course of a year, that is a huge discrepancy.  Over a decade?  Yikes.

So, the numbers may be way off in favor of a lower number of illegal aliens living here.

Now, let’s talk about the strategy the Border Patrol uses.  That would have a significant impact on the apprehension rate Obama uses to “prove” the border is sealed.

Strategy #1: Sitting on X’s

A former Supervisory Border Patrol Agent Terry McCann stated:

“It’s all BS and politics. The number of people entering is massive, but by ordering Border Patrol agents to sit on predetermined sites all day and all night, there is visible presence, and arrests go down. Of course, the flood tide of illegal aliens ‘flank’ those positions right and left and with no one guarding the rear, the invasion is hardly slowed.”

Source Link: http://www.thesocialcontract.com/artman2/publish/tsc_17_4/tsc_17_4_elbel.shtml

Strategy #2: Turn Back South (TBS)

“It appears, according to numerous reports from current and former border agents, that this practice has gravitated many miles north of the border. That means that, regardless of proximity to the border, people who are detected but not caught are considered to be ‘Turned Back South.’

“There is another place, at a different level where TBS is in effect. It is at the prosecutorial and judicial level. There are policies in place that establish thresholds for quantities of drugs and numbers of illegal aliens before consideration for prosecution can be entertained. In at least one Federal District in Texas, if you are caught smuggling less than 750 kilos of marijuana, you will not be subjected to prosecution. If you are caught smuggling fewer than 6 illegal aliens, you will not be subject to prosecution. And if you are a lone illegal border crosser, you get at least seven chances before you are even charged with a misdemeanor. And after that, you get seven more chances before you are eligible for prosecution of a second offense felony. TBS occurs at many levels and is quickly assimilated into the understanding of the bad guys on how to game the system.”

-Congressional Testimony of Sheriff Larry Dever, May 3, 2011

Source Link: http://homeland.house.gov/sites/homeland.house.gov/files/Testimony%20Dever.pdf

In short, if you don’t process the apprehension, but turn the illegal alien around and send him back across the border, you LOWER the apprehension numbers.

In summary, the true numbers of illegal aliens are hard to come by and easy to manipulate for political gain.  The apprehension numbers aren’t really a reflection of what happens at the border, since most of them are not processed and sent back.  The apprehensions take place within the United States, and letting most of them go rather than recording the encounter makes the situation look better than it really is.

Da Fence Department

The President devoted a portion of his El Paso remarks (May 10, 2011) to a report on his efforts to secure the border.  His rationale is this: You said we could pass legalization if we secured the border.  I did it.  Now give me amnesty.

Bush had the same mentality.  It took him six years to get to that point, but he started talking about the fence in his second term as bait for his amnesty plan.

So, let’s look at this statement by Obama: “The fence is now basically complete.”

And let’s look at the fence from the most recent document on the Border Patrol website:

California

Arizona

New Mexico

Texas (Not the same scale as the other maps)

Source link:

http://www.cbp.gov/linkhandler/cgov/newsroom/highlights/fence_map.ctt/fence_map.pdf

The green lines are the completed sections.  The yellow are under construction.  The red lines are “Planned/Under Contract,” whatever that means.

So, we’ve completed the 700 miles Bush promised us would be done in 2008 before he left office.  But aren’t you worried about the huge gaps?  The border is not secure.  Anyone with half a brain can see that the coyotes will simply move down the line.

And that isn’t a long trip.  They’ve spent tons of cash beefing up El Paso, but you wind up with this scenario just 60 miles south.

The Nightline special on Fort Hancock Texas is still up on the Internet here.  You should spend eight minutes and watch what it looks like where the fence comes to an end:

http://www.hulu.com/watch/167690/abc-nightline-fear-on-the-mexican-border

I love the comment from the rancher who says, “We grew up with livestock, and obviously we misunderstood how fences work.  We thought they had to be contiguous and surrounding the areas; didn’t know you could just put up a little piece and it’d work.”

And the Feds have given up on the virtual fence, after spending a billion dollars on it.

Needless to say, the border is not secure.  Besides, Obama himself admits that many simply overstay a visa.  The fence won’t stop them.

Obama’s remarks on securing the border, May 10, 2011, El Paso

"And I want to say I am joined today by an outstanding Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Janet Napolitano, who’s been working tirelessly on this issue.  (Applause.)  Our commissioner who’s working diligently on border issues, Alan Bersin, is there, and we appreciate him -- Bersin.  (Applause.)

"So they’re doing outstanding work.  And in recent years, among one of the greatest impediments to reform were questions about border security.  And these were legitimate concerns.  What was true was a lack of manpower and a lack of resources at the border, combined with the pull of jobs and ill-considered enforcement once folks were in the country.

"All this contributed to a growing number of undocumented people living in the United States.  And these concerns helped unravel a bipartisan coalition that we had forged back when I was in the United States Senate.  So in the years since, “borders first, borders first,” that's become the common refrain, even among those who were previously supportive of comprehensive immigration reform.

"But over the last two years, thanks to the outstanding work of Janet and Alan and everybody who’s down here working at the border, we’ve answered those concerns.  Under their leadership, we have strengthened border security beyond what many believed was possible.   They wanted more agents at the border.  Well, we now have more boots on the ground on the southwest border than at any time in our history.  (Applause.) 

"The Border Patrol has 20,000 agents -- more than twice as many as there were in 2004.  It’s a build-up that began under President Bush and that we’ve continued, and I had a chance to meet some of these outstanding agents, and actually saw some of them on horseback who looked pretty tough.  (Laughter.)  So we put the agents here.

"Then they wanted a fence.  Well, the fence is --"

AUDIENCE:  Booo!

THE PRESIDENT:  "The fence is now basically complete."

AUDIENCE MEMBER:  Tear it down!

THE PRESIDENT:  "Then we’ve gone further.  We tripled the number of intelligence analysts working at the border.  I’ve deployed unmanned aerial vehicles to patrol the skies from Texas to California.  We have forged a partnership with Mexico to fight the transnational criminal organizations that have affected both of our countries.  (Applause.)  And for the first time -- for the first time we’re screening 100 percent of southbound rail shipments to seize guns and money going south even as we go after drugs that are coming north.  (Applause.)

"So, here’s the point.  I want everybody to listen carefully to this.  We have gone above and beyond what was requested by the very Republicans who said they supported broader reform as long as we got serious about enforcement.  All the stuff they asked for, we’ve done.  But even though we’ve answered these concerns, I’ve got to say I suspect there are still going to be some who are trying to move the goal posts on us one more time."

AUDIENCE MEMBER:  They’re racist!

THE PRESIDENT:  "You know, they said we needed to triple the Border Patrol.  Or now they’re going to say we need to quadruple the Border Patrol.  Or they’ll want a higher fence.  Maybe they’ll need a moat.  (Laughter.)  Maybe they want alligators in the moat.  (Laughter.)  They’ll never be satisfied.  And I understand that.  That’s politics.

"But the truth is the measures we’ve put in place are getting results.  Over the past two and a half years, we’ve seized 31 percent more drugs, 75 percent more currency, 64 percent more weapons than ever before.  (Applause.)  And even as we have stepped up patrols, apprehensions along the border have been cut by nearly 40 percent from two years ago.  That means far fewer people are attempting to cross the border illegally.

"And also, despite a lot of breathless reports that have tagged places like El Paso as dangerous, violent crime in southwest border counties has dropped by a third.  El Paso and other cities and towns along this border are consistently among the safest in the nation.  (Applause.)  Of course, we shouldn’t accept any violence or crime.  And we’ve always got more work to do.  But this progress is important and it’s not getting reported on.

"And we’re also going beyond the border.  Beyond the border, we’re going after employers who knowingly exploit people and break the law.  (Applause.)  And we are deporting those who are here illegally.  And that’s a tough issue.  It’s a source of controversy.

"But I want to emphasize we’re not doing it haphazardly.  We’re focusing our limited resources and people on violent offenders and people convicted of crimes -- not just families, not just folks who are just looking to scrape together an income.  And as a result, we’ve increased the removal of criminals by 70 percent.  (Applause.)

"That’s not to ignore the real human toll of a broken immigration system.  Even as we recognize that enforcing the law is necessary, we don’t relish the pain that it causes in the lives of people who are just trying to get by and get caught up in the system.

"And as long as the current laws are on the books, it’s not just hardened felons who are subject to removal, but sometimes families who are just trying to earn a living, or bright, eager students, or decent people with the best of intentions.  (Applause.)

"And sometimes when I talk to immigration advocates, they wish I could just bypass Congress and change the law myself.  But that’s not how a democracy works.  What we really need to do is to keep up the fight to pass genuine, comprehensive reform.  That is the ultimate solution to this problem.  That's what I’m committed to doing."  (Applause.)

  

AUDIENCE MEMBER:  Yes, we can!  Yes, we can!

THE PRESIDENT:  "Yes, we can.  We can do it."  (Applause.)

Legalization helps the Middle Class? I don’t think so.

Continuing on with my review of Obama's remarks in El Paso, May 10, 2011.

Now, here’s where Obama talks about the illegal alien problem.

(See the end of this post for the text in context of his speech.)

It is duly noted that he uses the term “undocumented.”  He says there are 11 million of them.  Some are border-crossers; others overstay their visas.

He decrees that most of them just want to work and provide for their families.

He says, “They’ve cut in front of the line.”  He says that’s unfair to those who are on waiting lists around the world.

Then his tone shifts, turning illegal aliens into victims:  “Also, because undocumented immigrants live in the shadows, where they’re vulnerable to unscrupulous businesses that skirt taxes, and pay workers less than the minimum wage, or cut corners with health and safety laws…”

But he grants that such “unscrupulous businesses” create for themselves an unfair advantage over their competitors.

Then he becomes Barack-the-Economist. 

The problem: Middle class families are paying more and earning less.

His solution: Do away with the “massive underground economy that exploits a cheap source of labor while depressing wages for everybody else.”  In other words, legalize the undocumented, or in plain talk, give amnesty to the illegal aliens.

But Mr. President, the overwhelming percentage of illegal aliens have a high school education or less:

Source link: http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/107.pdf

And they are doing low-end jobs.:

 Source Link: http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/61.pdf

So, how do you aid the Middle Class by giving de facto raises to illegal aliens when 75% of them never went to college and 80% of them are working low-end jobs?

Wouldn’t we be better served to give those jobs to our own low-skilled, less-educated citizens, thus talking them off the welfare rolls and making them taxpayers?

But Obama seamlessly goes on to talk about high-tech jobs and the Horatio Alger stories of immigrants.  Sure Mr. President, have the chambermaids and the busboys stand next to Bill Gates...but that won’t make them one bit more skilled as a result.

Obama wants us to believe that the skills of illegal aliens are vital to our economy.  When speaking about the overwhelming majority of “undocumented,” that is simply not true.  Over 75% of them have no unique education or skill level that would make them irreplaceable in the workforce…or make them part of the Middle Class.

Here's the text:

"Today, there are an estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants here in the United States.  Some crossed the border illegally.  Others avoid immigration laws by overstaying their visas.  Regardless of how they came, the overwhelming majority of these folks are just trying to earn a living and provide for their families.  (Applause.)

"But we have to acknowledge they’ve broken the rules.  They’ve cut in front of the line.  And what is also true is that the presence of so many illegal immigrants makes a mockery of all those who are trying to immigrate legally.

"Also, because undocumented immigrants live in the shadows, where they’re vulnerable to unscrupulous businesses that skirt taxes, and pay workers less than the minimum wage, or cut corners with health and safety laws, this puts companies who follow the rules, and Americans who rightly demand the minimum wage or overtime or just a safe place to work, it puts those businesses at a disadvantage.

"Think about it.  Over the past decade, even before the recession hit, middle-class families were struggling to get by as the costs went up for everything, from health care, to college tuition, to groceries, to gas.  Their incomes didn’t go up with those prices.  We’re seeing it again right now with gas prices.

"So one way to strengthen the middle class in America is to reform the immigration system so that there is no longer a massive underground economy that exploits a cheap source of labor while depressing wages for everybody else.  I want incomes for middle-class families to rise again.  (Applause.)  I want prosperity in this country to be widely shared.  (Applause.)  I want everybody to be able to reach that American dream.  And that’s why immigration reform is an economic imperative.  It’s an economic imperative.  (Applause.)

"And reform will also help to make America more competitive in the global economy.  Today, we provide students from around the world with visas to get engineering and computer science degrees at our top universities.  (Applause.)

"But then our laws discourage them from using those skills to start a business or a new industry here in the United States.  Instead of training entrepreneurs to stay here, we train them to create jobs for our competition.  That makes no sense.  In a global marketplace, we need all the talent we can attract, all the talent we can get to stay here to start businesses -- not just to benefit those individuals, but because their contribution will benefit all Americans.

"Look at Intel, look at Google, look at Yahoo, look at eBay.  All those great American companies, all the jobs they’ve created, everything that has helped us take leadership in the high-tech industry, every one of those was founded by, guess who, an immigrant.  (Applause.)

"So we don’t want the next Intel or the next Google to be created in China or India.  We want those companies and jobs to take root here.  (Applause.)  Bill Gates gets this.  He knows a little something about the high-tech industry.  He said, “The United States will find it far more difficult to maintain its competitive edge if it excludes those who are able and willing to help us compete.”

"So immigration is not just the right thing to do.  It’s smart for our economy.  It’s smart for our economy.  (Applause.)  And it’s for this reason that businesses all across America are demanding that Washington finally meet its responsibilities to solve the immigration problem.  Everybody recognizes the system is broken.  The question is, will we finally summon the political will to do something about it?  And that’s why we’re here at the border today."

Obama’s speech, point-by-point

When the president spoke in El Paso on May 10, 2011, he began with the story of a community college in Florida.  He talked of the 181 nations represented at that one school and how proud they were of their own lands.  But in the end they were most proud to be Americans.

He weaved into that speech the linguistic sleight-of-hand trick; indiscriminately mixing illegal aliens into the pool of immigrants.

Obama said, “Many of the students were immigrants themselves, coming to America with little more than the dream of their parents and the clothes on their back.  A handful had discovered only in adolescence or adulthood that they were undocumented.”

Illegal aliens, or “undocumented” as they like to be called, are not immigrants.  The undocumented have not been recognized by our government as immigrants.  That’s the issue at hand.

He goes on to talk about the swearing-in ceremonies held at the White House for those who have naturalized.  One must respect those who have followed the rules to come here in the first place, then taken the steps necessary to become a citizen.  But what does that quaint story have to do with illegal aliens or quotas or enforcement?

Then he talks about immigrants who have served in the military.  That’s wonderful, but again, off-topic.

He then quotes from the Declaration of Independence those words of hope.

“…that all of us are created equal, endowed by our Creator with certain inalienable rights.  All of us deserve our freedoms and our pursuit of happiness.”

Now hold the phone.  Is Obama implying that everyone has the right to come to America to pursue life, liberty and happiness?  Is he telling us that everyone has claim on presence here?  Can he really believe that?  That is an extreme open borders mentality.

Then for the first time during the speech, he’s on topic.  “…we also recognize that being a nation of laws goes hand in hand with being a nation of immigrants.  This, too, is our heritage.  This, too, is important.  And the truth is, we’ve often wrestled with the politics of who is and who isn’t allowed to come into this country.  This debate is not new.

“At times, there has been fear and resentment directed towards newcomers, especially in hard economic times.”

He speaks the truth, but gets the conclusion wrong when he says, “And because these issues touch deeply on what we believe, touch deeply on our convictions -- about who we are as a people, about what it means to be an American -- these debates often elicit strong emotions.

“That’s one reason it’s been so difficult to reform our broken immigration system.  When an issue is this complex, when it raises such strong feelings, it’s easier for politicians to defer until the problem the next election.  And there’s always a next election.

“So we’ve seen a lot of blame and a lot of politics and a lot of ugly rhetoric around immigration.”

His conclusion, or at least the conclusion he WANTS US to believe, is that the fear and resentment of illegal aliens comes from emotions and political rhetoric.

The fear and resentment come because our government has failed to enforce the laws and now one third of all foreign-born in this country are here illegally!  Worse, our elected leaders are actually fighting enforcement of those immigration laws!

Indeed there is confusion and some misplaced anger, but Bill Clinton’s adviser on immigration, Barbara Jordan, put the blame squarely where it belongs back in 1994.  She told Congress:  “Unlawful immigration is unacceptable. Enforcement measures have not sufficiently stemmed these movements. Failure to develop more effective strategies to curb unlawful immigration has blurred distinctions between legal and illegal immigrants.”

Source link:  http://www.utexas.edu/lbj/uscir/080394.html

Look in the mirror, Mr. President.  When we fail to enforce the law on such a large scale and create a fugitive underground class in the process, we are creating the very ethnic tension you are complaining about.

Obama is fighting “ugly rhetoric” with rhetoric of his own.  What we need is substance here.

More to come on Obama’s speech.

Economic Development - Fed Style

I continue with my analysis of Obama's speech on immigration reform...

Cities and States have agencies that engage in Economic Development.  In short, they try to entice people to create businesses in their area.

And Obama’s right when he said this:

“In a global marketplace, we need all the talent we can attract, all the talent we can get to stay here to start businesses -- not just to benefit those individuals, but because their contribution will benefit all Americans.

“Look at Intel, look at Google, look at Yahoo, look at eBay.  All those great American companies, all the jobs they’ve created, everything that has helped us take leadership in the high-tech industry, every one of those was founded by, guess who, an immigrant.  (Applause.)

“So we don’t want the next Intel or the next Google to be created in China or India.  We want those companies and jobs to take root here.  (Applause.)  Bill Gates gets this.  He knows a little something about the high-tech industry.  He said, “The United States will find it far more difficult to maintain its competitive edge if it excludes those who are able and willing to help us compete.”

“So immigration is not just the right thing to do.  It’s smart for our economy.”

-President Obama, May 10, 2011, El Paso

He’s right.  That’s just what Barbara Jordan had in mind when she told Congress in 1994, “…it is both a right and a responsibility of a democratic society to manage immigration so that it serves the national interest.

“The Commission believes that legal immigration has been and can continue to be a strength of this country.”

Source Link: http://www.utexas.edu/lbj/uscir/080394.html

So, how does immigration become a tool for Economic Development?

First, we must understand that our current formula for immigration will NOT enhance our economic position.  I speak of Family Unification taking up the majority of visas granted each year.  Family Unification (aka chain migration) grants the vast majority of visas based on one single quality: That the applicant is related to someone who is already here.

Since the majority of our immigrants since 1965 have been poor and uneducated and hail from the Third World, we will admit even MORE immigrants who are poor, uneducated and hail from the Third World by virtue of the fact that they will come from the same stock as those who have already been admitted.

(I might add that it is this model that is also creating huge pressure at the embassies and encouraging people to come here illegally.  Relatives grow exponentially, not linearly.)

So, if Obama wants to focus immigration on those who will start businesses and create jobs, he would first have to lift the cap on Employment-based visas.  Right now it stands at 140,000 or about 14% of total visas. 

The next step is very difficult.  Many Employment-based visas are scams.  The intent is to prove that the immigrant isn’t taking the job of a citizen.  But that system doesn’t work.  Too often the work visa is granted to a worker who is simply CHEAPER than a citizen.

We might consider a points-based system whereby an applicant is scored in five or six categories and the visas are allocated to those with the highest scores.

In the period between 1924 and 1965 we had a very low level of immigration, and immigrants clearly were job-creators.  We were pulling off the great brain-drain of Europe.

But the United States is no longer the entrepreneurs’ Mecca.  Take a look at this chart to see why:

 

Source Link: http://www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/show/23473.html

Given the global nature of business, we are going to have to do something about the high business tax rate.  Why would anyone with an idea want to build his widgets in the United States when he can keep far more of his money by building them somewhere else?

So Mr. President, are we serious about this?  If so, we need to STOP importing needy people from the third world who have no education and no skills, and START acting like a country that “want[s] those companies and jobs to take root here.”


And it wouldn't hurt to stop bashing CEOs.

We all like MORE

Who can resist that deal?  FOUR free ounces of hand lotion.

Or 50% more scum remover (biting my tongue on this one)

Or more RAID.

Our desire for MORE is not lost on our politicians.  From "A Chicken in Every Pot" (Herbert Hoover) to Obamacare, voters like to get more of all the good stuff.

It should come as no surprise that immigration reform has its share of MORE stuff.  But before we talk about the bonuses, we need to look at the baseline data.

Source link: http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/lpr_fr_2010.pdf

In reviewing the green card numbers from the last decade, these two things are true:
1) That we authorized 10,501,053 people to live and work here, over 1 million people a year, even during the recession.  Even when unemployment was over 10%, and higher than that in states which traditionally are home to immigrants.
2) That one little country of 107 million received more of those green cards than anywhere else.  That's right; Mexico was issued 1,693,141 green cards, or an average of nearly 170,000 per year.

So, when the politicians start talking about MORE immigration it is only fair for us to ask, "How many more?" and "Why?"

Obama, and Bush before him, wants to add to the immigration burden in three ways.  Right from the start, the Obama White House has sought the following, according to the January 21, 2009 White House website:

"Improve Our Immigration System: Fix the dysfunctional immigration bureaucracy and increase the number of legal immigrants to keep families together and meet the demand for jobs that employers cannot fill."

His first call for MORE is to streamline the bureaucracy, meaning that one million a year is not enough and needs to be ramped-up.

His second call for more is to increase family unification, aka chain migration.  That will require a higher number, but he never tells you how much higher.

 

"Bring People Out of the Shadows: Support a system that allows undocumented immigrants who are in good standing to pay a fine, learn English, and go to the back of the line for the opportunity to become citizens."

Here's the third call for MORE, a legalization program.  There are at least 11 million illegal aliens residing here now.  Seven million are from Mexico.  That represents over 41 YEARS of green card recipients!

MORE has a downside, especially when it comes to immigration.  MORE means MORE cars on the road, MORE children in the schools, MORE need for social services, MORE police...

Any discussion on immigration reform ought to begin with the question, "How many immigrants does the United States really need?"

I'm not hearing that discussion, are you?